Random vs. Non-Random Walk Theory ... - Forex Training Group
random_walk_index.mq4 - Forex Station
FOREX RANDOM WALK: # Przemysław Słomski, Doxa, Cezary ...
The Forex Market Random Walk - TradingProbability.com
Forex Is Not a Random Walk - Article contest - Dukascopy ...
Random Walk (The unbeatable!) Page 5 Forex Factory
Random Walk (The unbeatable!) Forex Factory
Why is Forex so hard to trade with standard strategies?
Hi, I ran backtests for these markets:
Forex, EURUSD and USDCAD
Metals - Gold, silver
Crypto - BTCUSD, ETHUSD
It almost poked into my eye that forex seems to change its behaviour randomly sometimes and became unsuitable for standard strategies - e.g. MA crossover, Keltner, BB after idk maybe mid 2019? It has the tighest spreads & smallest commissions,swaps etc. but is not very consistent anymore, e.g. with crypto or SP500 I strategies work well in backtest and make a small profit in forward test but for forex, e.g. EURUSD you are in for major drawdowns and low winrates? Where is all this losses money going, to ML? Are market makers just randomly pushing prices to collect commissions?
The Last Time I Write Another One of These Cringey Things (I hope...): Part 2892, The Worst Sequel and Wall of Text, ever
Hiya, folks...! It's another wall of text from some random person who could be doing just about anything else except for this... Who's ready for some paragraphs from some stranger? I know you'd rather be doing anything else, or maybe not haha.. But it does mean a lot if you do take the time to try to attempt to accurately type me... I will DEFINITELY NOT overthink it this time, and take your consideration FULLY to heart, and stop overthinking my MBTI type and live happily ever after! (Hahahahhaha...! ... ...) ... Ok, let's begin!
How old are you? What's your gender? Give us a general description of yourself.
I am a freshly 23 year old male that likes to do average Redditor bullcrap. Video games, memes, music, making my finger go up and down endlessly while staring at a glass LED screen with pixels on it while feeling like I've accomplished nothing. Just average stuff, I suppose. I'm not really that interesting tbh... I work at home and I am just "vibing", as the kids say. I have some long term projects planned, but I'm at least trying to rest up from a really shitty 7 years that I've had back to back to back so... Nothing really insightful to write here haha..
Is there a medical diagnosis that impact your mental/comportamental stability somehow?
Likely several... I had a very traumatic childhood that I constantly gaslight myself about like saying things like "it wasn't that bad, people have it worse" and much worse.. I disassociate from reality every 2.5 seconds, can't focus, have terrible insomnia, EXTREMELY low energy, mood swings, brain fog, random body pains 24/7, seventeen billion repressed emotions which don't help out anything else that I'm dealing with, memory problems, and I need caffeine to do the bare minimum of just about anything on most days, but some of that could be average American problems. I've suspected I have some form as Aspergers, and probably A TON of mental illnesses, such as OCD, anxiety, depression, and maybe a personality disorder.
Describe your upbringing. Did it have any kind of religious or structured influence? How did you respond to it?
My upbringing is a very mixed bag overall. I would not say I had a typically "tragic" childhood (there goes me gaslighting myself LOL) because people have DEFINITELY had it worse than me. But I can't sit here and pretend everything I went through was "normal". To attempt to sum it up, I basically was a "gifted" kid who got good grades throughout school and maintained my image of being this perfect kid, but meanwhile in the shadows, I was just slowly dying inside and suffering from a lot of imposter syndrome (amongst other things), which I'd definitely would say is warranted because I was NOT cut out for anything in school and it showed. I basically faked my way through school, got burnt out EARLY but got mega burnt out by senior year, and basically started college with no plan but somehow still managed to graduate (barely) and just kinda end up where I am now. As far as a religious upbringing is concerned, I definitely was heavily influenced by religion, in kind of a negative way (?) Religion and I have a VERY weird relationship. On the one hand, I guess I love my religious friends, the lessons I learned from it, and a lot of what it says, but on the other hand I can not ever be a part of one mostly because of some of the dogmatic thinking and extremely toxic aspects to it that people use to justify hate and violence, and that's not really my type of thing. Also, I used to be really kinda "uppity" or arrogant about my religion, and now I DESPISE seeing the same type of "holier than thou" attitude projected. It kinda irks me on the inside. Looking back, my response to it all was a major polarity shift from one extreme, to the other, and now where I'm at, I can look back at both sides and take the good from both. What do I mean by that? Welllllll... I mentioned earlier how I can't stand the "holier than thou" type, and for a while, that was DEFINITELY me. I was REALLY into it and took it extremely serious. I wouldn't mind being called "lame" or "whack" for having my faith, but looking back, it really made my quality of life kinda worse because I did have those strong beliefs and those off-putting characteristics that ostracized me from my peers and some potentially great experiences. I grew out of this and then became an EXTREME atheist, and for a while, it felt freeing. I felt better, smarter, edgier, and just superior, but looking back, I was just cynical and a total asshole, and arguably worse than the "holier than thou douche persona" that I had growing up. Luckily, my extreme atheism phase kinda fizzled out after some other trauma that happened around the time I became an atheist, and now, I can respect religion and be open to it, the ideas, and the amazing things that come from it while also maintaining my independent thinking but not to the point of being "hur dur be skeptical and point out everything wrong with religion all the time and be an asshole for no reason to religious people", if that makes any sense. As far as my relationship to the structure in my life.. It's kind of a mixed bag. I had a pretty suffocated childhood, and I wasn't allowed certain things, but I guess it wasn't really all that bad in the end, or at least as it could've been. Most of this was just protection from a single parent who just didn't want anything to me and wanted me to be the best I could be in life, and I can respect this and look back on some parts of my structured childhood with fondness. But I most certainly got sick of it all by the time I was almost finished with highschool and in a lot of my college career. I basically used to be Mr. Structured. I had everything organized, I was neat, clean, got everything done at the right time, all the good stuff. But my brain just got tired of maintaining that forever, because I was already pretty much bad at life, but I was forced to just continue faking everything until something happened. So, by the end of high school, I lost all of those characteristics and became extremely sloppy. But I really do blame that on being physically tired. Being as organized as I was was TAXING because of how I overdid it. And now, thinking back, a lot of my structuredness was just on the surface level, and it was me trying to live up to everyone's standards and be just on top of everything, all the time, at a VERY unhealthy level, and that's probably what burnt me out too. I was addicted to the image of being this extremely put together person who has their shit together, while not having absolutely any shit to get together because I was withering away inside faster than fresh cotton candy from the fair melts in your mouth when your mouth is dry. So, basically to sum it all up, I was a really clean cut religious smart "gifted" kid who wasn't really that, at all (AND I still don't know who I am now tbh haha) and I got tired of putting on that image all the time and turned to a dirty neckbeard atheist cynic for a short time, and then balanced out to whatever the fuck I am now because I wear 238234 different masks for each and every occasion, but THAT'S a different story haha.. I look back at both equally cringey and horrible chapters of my life with some scorn for myself and the times, but overall a much more understand a balanced perspective, because I had to go through it all to be me, and I'm just glad I can be here now. I'd say I definitely liked moments from those chapters, but overall, I'm much happier where I'm at now, which is not nearly as anally obsessive at the concept of being structured and not nearly as hyper-faithful to my religion or just a total asshole piece of shit atheist.
What do you do as a job or as a career (if you have one)? Do you like it? Why or why not?
Right now, I'm sorta half employed. I do trade a bit on the Forex markets from signals groups and make enough to help out my family, and buy myself things here and there. I'm only really doing this because I went through a really shitty 7 years and I just need time to myself to kind of figure out, A LOT (clearly, as you can see by reading this HORRIBLE reddit post LOL) and rest. I just like the amount of freedom I have, and the money. I really like the idea of me having money saved and ready for any emergency, or family member or friend. I just need money to help out, stay safe, and to have time for myself to rest and take care of my health, or just pursue all the hobbies I missed out on, and I'm totally fine doing this the rest of my life. I don't really need or want that much in life, and I've always kind of been like this. I just want things to be peaceful and simple, so that my mind can be at ease and to just have free time for myself and a solution for any random chaotic emergency that happens because my mind always thinks of the worst that can happen by catastrophizing literally everything ever in the world. So my "career" is just a means to an end, like I'm sure a lot of people's careers are, unless you happen to have a passion or something, which is also amazing. I do like writing, and I do wanna finish my book. I daydream a lot about it, and sometimes that's much more fun than actually writing it, but I do wanna finish it, but I also want it to be absolutely perfect and plothole free, and much more. I also wanna do YouTube and Twitch, but I feel like I have a lot to do as a person before I can freely be on those sites as a full person/"influencer" (I have so many mixed feelings about having a full time career as an influencer and having my life under that much pressure and scrutiny, BUTTTTT that's a different discussion...), so I might pursue those slowly or just freestyle it for fun. Those were my big dreams as a kid, but growing up, I see that writing a good book is damned hard (worth it, but hard) and being a Youtubesocial media star is a different world entirely, and I don't know how I feel about it. Like, I know I'd never be a Shane Dawson (YIKES) or Cryaotic (EWWWWW) but to even just disappoint one person, or have any sort of fuckup, or.. I don't know where I'm going with this... Basically, everything I suffer from now would only be amplified by having a YouTube career, my people pleasing tendencies, my over obsession with being perfect for others/myself, my workaholic tendencies, my being hard on myself, my fear of fucking anything up, and my imposter syndrome, those would all go BRRRRRR if I got any decent success on YouTube, so... *Phew* That's my weird relationship with my life, and where I wanna go with it. To be honest, I'd be happy where I'm at right now, because at the end of the day, as long as I'm healthy and my family is happy, I'm ok, but a part of me also wants to live out those big dreams like having my book be a thing and animated, and being a good YouTuber, meme maker, Twitch streamer, all the above at the same time but my insecurities are like "BWAHAHAHAHA", so I'm just like: -_- But I'll figure it out! Hopefully..
If you had to spend an entire weekend by yourself, how would you feel? Would you feel lonely or refreshed?
Hm... Interesting question. Honestly, I'd never feel lonely on weekends by myself. Even when my friends are doing better things or aren't around, I don't really feel lonely I guess. Most of the time I have weekends alone, I feel pretty refreshed I suppose. It's kinda hard to tell haha.. This feels more like a circumstantial question where a myriad of things that are going on during the hypothetical week or just in my life/mind would determine this answer. Sometimes I just need that weekend to recharge and be alone and in my thoughts, or watching Netflix or being an absolute video game degenerate while dancing alone in my room and eating junk food. And sometimes, I like to be out and about with my friends, or just doing stuff. I probably lean more towards refreshed though, overall in a general sense.
What is your relation with movement and your surroundings? For instance do you prefer a sport or outdoors event? If an outdoors event what is it? And why? If not what type of activities do you tend to engage in?
BIG YIKES. I feel like a non human that doesn't belong on this planet or universe 99% of the time. I'm VERY slow, awkward movements, jittery, sometimes it looks like I was born yesterday with my grasp on physical reality, but yet, I do interestingly enough find myself loving to sweat and workout. I don't really have the coordination for any type of real sport, but I do like walks and I would run if I lived in an area where I could have a private or peaceful run where I would not be interrupted or seen by anyone because I look HIDEOUS running. I won't say I could never get into running at a professional or serious level, like with a group, but I'd just say it's more unlikely, for now. It sounds really exciting and interesting to be good at something physical, and I have always admired people who could do really sick stuff in sports, and I've always wanted to do it. But, right now, my uncoordinated ass will stick to just riding my exercise bike occasionally to burn off some restlessness and help me sleep betteperform better because working out makes my brain feel oddly stable lol. (I guess that's why I have such a fascination with physical stuff even though I am absolutely hopeless in most of it in the grand scheme of things)
How curious are you? Do you have more ideas then you can execute? What are your curiosities about? What are your ideas about - is it environmental or conceptual, and can you please elaborate?
I don't know if I'd say I'm curious, I guess I just think a lot. Like, I'll see something or watch something and daydream about it all the time, making new ideas out of it in my head or creating something new with it, trying to take it a new level or understand it at a different level, if that makes sense. Like, I'll sort of mentally digest something and that's what gives me inspiration, or ideas. I take in everything as I go and make up new shit with it later on (LOL this sounds like regular human being talk, because everyone does this). I would say I have a lot of ideas on everything. I daydream about random chapters in my book a lot, like full on scenes. I'll daydream about a new melody for a song I've never heard with lyrics, and I'll try to make lyrics in my head and extend the melody. I'll daydream about my interactions in life, and just how I could have responded differently, or maybe what the other person is thinking, or feeling, or stuff like I wonder if they're okay. I'll daydream about new memes I can make, or me in an interview (OMG MEGA CRINGE ROFL). I pretty much daydream about... Everything. And then I'll daydream about what I'm daydreaming about, and why I'm doing it, and it gets too meta at that point. (this could very well just be maladaptive daydreaming and NOT indicative of any cognitive function ROFL)
Would you enjoy taking on a leadership position? Do you think you would be good at it? What would your leadership style be?
Nope, nuh uh. I am too much of a people pleaser and pushover. I'd be dead or betrayed before my first week is over. The thing about me is that generally, I feel like I'd be a terrible leader because I can overthink a lot, all the time, and I'd be slow to action and prone to analysis paralysis and extreme people pleasing tendencies. I can also be conflict avoidant, and just want people to be happy, so I'd let a lot of stuff slide that I maybe should not. Now, don't get me wrong, I can be firm and tough when needed, but eventually that'd be too much for me to bear, and I couldn't be in a position like that for long. I genuinely hope I never become a leader, because even when I'm looking back to five minutes ago, I can say that "ew, that's cringe bro", so I clearly have a lot of work to do before I have something that serious on my plate.
Are you coordinated? Why do you feel as if you are or are not? Do you enjoy working with your hands in some form? Describe your activity?
HAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHA. Funny question. But.. Yeahhhhhhh... No. I am NOT coordinated. I can barely walk in my kitchen without the fear of me accidentally turning wrong or moving incorrectly and just breaking something or knocking over everything in the kitchen. SOMETIMES I'm in James Bond mode, and it feels like I can do anything physical, and I feel aware of everything, my body, my surroundings, and I can actually move like a human being, but that usually doesn't last long. I can do just the bare minimum that an average human can do, but MUCH MUCH worse and at a greater cost of my energy, and my mental energy trying not to fuck anything up because I have literally just been sitting at times and barely move and knock over EVERYTHING somehow, because that's just how much my body was not meant to be on planet earth and I maybe should have been incarnated as a slug, idk.
Are you artistic? If yes, describe your art? If you are not particular artistic but can appreciate art please likewise describe what forums of art you enjoy. Please explain your answer.
I'd describe myself as artistic, even if I haven't drawn in years LOL. But let me explain... I do still have a love for it, I just haven't really been able to practice. In general, my art is just aiming for whatever is in my brain, and I don't have a solid style. I'm just going for whatever I'm going for in the moment. I prefer a mix of realism with some "quirks", if that makes sense. While I haven't drawn in a while, this is how I'd imagine I'd want my art to look nowadays. Pretty realistic with perfect everything, perfect features, perfect environment or whatever I'm illustrating or going for (perfect features on a person, all the hair strands drawn individually, etc), with a mix of my own little "spice", if that makes sense. Back in the day, my art was just trying to copy classic anime, and while I have no problem with that style, I just wanna kinda make my own style, even if that is hard to verbalize lmao. Alright guys.. I would write more, but I'm sleepy and some of this is getting dumb/boring (as if it wasn't already LOL). I'm glad you made it this far, and thank you for reading and putting up with this actual garbage fire of a post. Please take care of yourselves during these crazy weird times, and I hope you are doing well. I look forward to reading you guys responses (if I get any LOL). Stay amazing, and stay healthy :3
I have a habit of backtesting every strategy I find as long as it makes sense. I find it fun, and even if the strategy ends up being underperforming, it gives me a good excuse to gain valuable chart experience that would normally take years to gather. After I backtest something, I compare it to my current methodology, and usually conclude that mine is better either because it has a better performance or the new method requires too much time to manage (Spoiler: until now, I like this better) During the last two days, I have worked on backtesting ParallaxFx strategy, as it seemed promising and it seemed to fit my personality (a lazy fuck who will happily halve his yearly return if it means he can spend 10% less time in front of the screens). My backtesting is preliminary, and I didn't delve very deep in the data gathering. I usually track all sort of stuff, but for this first pass, I sticked to the main indicators of performance over a restricted sample size of markets. Before I share my results with you, I always feel the need to make a preface that I know most people will ignore.
I am words on your screen. You cannot trust me. I could have edited this or literally just typed random numbers on a spreadsheet. Do your own research if you want to trust my conclusion.
Even if you trust me, you need to do backtesting for yourself. The goal of backtesting isn't simply to figure out whether a strategy has an edge: it's a way to get used to how the market flows (valuable experience you will bring on to any other strategy) and how the strategy behaves. You need to see it with your own eyes to allow your subconscious mind to be at ease when it comes time to trade it live: the only way to truly trust your strategy during a period of drawdown, is to have seen it work over hundreds of trades in the past.
Strategy I am not going to go into the strategy in this thread. If you haven't read the series of threads by the guy who shared it, go here. As suggested by my mentioned personality type, I went with the passive management options of ParallaxFx's strategy. After a valid setup forms, I place two orders of half my risk. I add or remove 1 pip from each level to account for spread.
The first at the 23.6 retracement.
The second at the 38.2 retracement.
Both orders have a stop loss at the 78.6 retracement.
Both orders have the same target at the -100.0 extension.
If price moves to the -38.2 extension, I delete any unfilled orders.
I do not scale out, I do not move to breakeven, I place my orders and walk away.
Sample I tested this strategy over the seven major currency pairs: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF. The time period started on January 1th 2018 and ended on July 1th 2020, so a 2.5 years backtest. I tested over the D1 timeframe, and I plan on testing other timeframes. My "protocol" for backtesting is that, if I like what I see during this phase, I will move to the second phase where I'll backtest over 5 years and 28 currency pairs. Units of measure I used R multiples to track my performance. If you don't know what they are, I'm too sleepy to explain right now. This article explains what they are. The gist is that the results you'll see do not take into consideration compounding and they normalize volatility (something pips don't do, and why pips are in my opinion a terrible unit of measure for performance) as well as percentage risk (you can attach variable risk profiles on your R values to optimize position sizing in order to maximize returns and minimize drawdowns, but I won't get into that). Results I am not going to link the spreadsheet directly, because it is in my GDrive folder and that would allow you to see my personal information. I will attach screenshots of both the results and the list of trades. In the latter, I have included the day of entry for each trade, so if you're up to the task, you can cross-reference all the trades I have placed to make sure I am not making things up. Overall results: R Curve and Segmented performance. List of trades: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Something to note: I treated every half position as an individual trade for the sake of simplicity. It should not mess with the results, but it simply means you will see huge streaks of wins and losses. This does not matter because I'm half risk in each of them, so a winstreak of 6 trades is just a winstreak of 3 trades. For reference:
Profit Factor: 2.34
Return: 100.47 R
Strike rate: 48.28%
Average win: 2.51 R
Average loss: -1.00 R
Thoughts Nice. I'll keep testing. As of now it is vastly better than my current strategy.
10 Secrets The Trading Industry Doesn’t Want You To Know About
Today’s lesson goes to be somewhat controversial and should ruffle some feathers. I shall blow wide open and debunk tons of the knowledge you've got presumably been exposed to the present far in your trading journey. The average trader is out there walking through a confusing and conflicting maze of data from a spread of sources including; blogs, forums, broker websites, books, e-books, courses and YouTube videos. With of these learning resources available there's naturally getting to be some excellent and a few very bad information, but actually , there just isn’t how for many aspiring traders to understand what to concentrate to, who to concentrate to, or what information is useful and what information is non-beneficial. I’m not getting to pretend that there's how for an aspiring trader to filter this giant sea of data composed by of these resources and mentors out there, because there simply isn’t. knowledgeable trader with 10,000 hours of experience might stand an opportunity of deciding the great from the bad and therefore the valid from the invalid. However, you, the beginner or intermediate trader simply won’t possess that filtering ability yet. Becoming ‘Non-Average’ As traders, we concede to our instinctive feelings of social trustworthiness supported what we see and listen to , often to our extreme detriment. we frequently tend to require a leap of religion with our mentors and have a habit of taking things said to us at face value. we would like to hold close information that resonates with us and is sensible to us, especially if it’s delivered by a well-known source that we've come to understand and trust. The ‘average trader’s brain’ is usually trying to find a shortcut due to the overwhelming desire to form money and be free. The brain wants to urge a winning result immediately with the smallest amount amount of effort possible. If you would like to ever make it as a professional trader or investor, I suggest you are doing everything you'll to avoid thinking with the ‘average trader’s brain‘ and begin being ‘non-average’. meaning becoming far more aware, thinking outside the box more and questioning and filtering the knowledge you read and watch. most significantly , slowing everything all down! This now begs the apparent question…how does one even know what I’m close to write during this lesson is actually valid and factual? How are you able to really be sure? the reality is unless you've got followed me and my posts on this blog for an extended time and know me and know my work, then you can’t really make certain , and that i don’t expect you to easily believe it at face value. If you would like to return back and re-read this lesson during a few weeks, or a couple of months, or a couple of years, after you work out that i'm somebody worth taking note of about trading OR that i'm somebody not worth taking note of about trading, then so be it. So with a degree of healthy skepticism, I ask you to think about the below list of eye-opening secrets that professional traders and therefore the trading industry, don’t want you to understand about or understand. I hope it helps… Visit : توصيات الذهب اليوم FOREX isn’t the sole market the Professionals trade The FX market is large , with billions of dollars per day changing hands. It can cause you to great money if you recognize what you’re doing OR it can send you broke if you don’t. It’s a really popular market to trade globally, BUT it’s not the sole market the professional’s trade and it’s not always the simplest market to trade either. A note on leverage: The brokers and platform providers want you to trade FX on high leverage because the profit margins are very high for them. However, if you trade FX on lower leverage, the profit margins shrink dramatically for them. once you trade FX, start brooding about what can fail rather than just brooding about what can go right. I suggest avoiding stupidly high leverage like 400 to 1, as this will be very dangerous for you if the market moves quickly or experiences a price gap and your stop-loss orders aren’t executed at the worth you set. A more sensible leverage level would be 100 to 1 or 200 to 1, but any higher seems crazy. (Using an excessive amount of leverage is what wiped tons of traders out during Swiss Bank Crisis in 2015, The Brexit choose 2016 and therefore the Currency flash crash in early 2019). Broaden your view: Going forward, it'll serve you well in your trading career to start out watching a spread of worldwide markets including FX, Stock Indicies and Commodities. additionally to FX, I personally trade GOLD (XAUUSD), S&P500 Index USA, the SPI200 Index Australia, and therefore the Hang Seng Index Hong Kong , and sometimes individual stocks on various global exchanges. In short, there's more to the trading world than simply FX. I discuss the foremost popular markets I trade this lesson here. Day trading isn’t what Pro trading really is The internet is crammed with marketing trying to convince folks that the definition of a trader may be a one that spends all day actively trading in and out of the market on a brief term basis, all whilst living the life-style of a Wall St millionaire. there's a significant agenda within the industry to push this story to the masses, it's been relentless for many years . I am yet to satisfy one successful day trader who is consistent over the future and that i have almost 25,000 students and 250,000 readers on this blog. i'm not saying there isn’t a couple of out there, but 99.9% of the people that do this sort of trading or attempt to live up to the standard day trader stereotype are getting to fail and perhaps even harm themselves financially or mentally. Watching a screen all day and searching for trades constantly is that the like a compulsive gambler playing roulette during a casino. The successful traders i do know of (myself included) are watching higher time frames and longer time horizons (minimum 4-hour chart timeframes and predominantly daily chart time frames). they need no restriction on how long they're looking to carry a trade for and that they tend to let the trades find them. The professionals i do know , don't day trade, they are doing not watch screens all day, they are doing not search for trades constantly. they're going to typically fall under the category of a swing trader, trend trader or position trader. The obvious paradox and conflicting reality within the ‘day trader story’ is blatantly obvious. How does a trader who is consistently watching a screen and constantly trading have time to enjoy his life and live the lifestyle? They chose to trade as a profession to possess a life, they didn’t choose it to observe a screen 24/5. Here are some points to think about that employment against the so-called ‘ day trader’: The shorter the time-frame the more noise and random price movement there's , thus increasing your chance of simply being stopped out of the trade. Your ‘trading edge’ features a higher chance of yielding a result for you if you’re not trading within the intraday noise. The same trading edge doesn't work or produce an equivalent results on a 5 min chart compared to a Daily chart. Commissions and spreads churn your account, therefore the more you trade the more you lose in broker platform costs. (I will mention this below) Risk-Reward ratios aren't relative on shorter and longer time frames. Statistical average volatility across different time periods also as natural market dynamics play an enormous role during this . there's much more weight behind higher time frames than lower timeframes. Great trades take time because the market moves slower than most of the people ever anticipate. Trading from the upper timeframes and holding trades for extended time periods will provide you with greater opportunities to ascertain trades mature into big winners. However, shorter timeframes don’t provide you with this same opportunity fairly often .
So I've been living with my girlfriend , our dog, her mom and boyfriend, and older brother who's 38 years old. My girlfriend and I pay a portion of the rent. I upgraded the internet and pay the difference. Her brother doesn't work or pay rent, and has two children who he sees once a month and doesn't pay child support... I could go on but yeah. In the household I share a bedroom with my girlfriend, and there is also a extra room which is directly 3 feet from her brothers room. I use the extra room often because it has my desktop computer in there. I'm a avid gamer, i wear headphones so no one can hear my audio, and I stream frequently so i can be talkative. And I understand I can be loud at times, and with that I keep the door shut when I'm doing so, but there are times throughout the day where it gets extremely hot so I leave the room door open for circulation. Sometimes I want my dog to be able to come in the room and chill with me, and be able to freely walk out. When ever I am in the room he always shuts my door. Even when I am pretty quiet. The only thing that makes noise is my keyboard and the chair i am sitting on.. and random burps lol. Meanwhile he leaves his room door open playing sh*t lo-fi music while studying forex trading thinking hes going to do that for a living with no income source. He also plays sh*tty free games with horrible audio that plays throughout the day down the hall in our home. Anyways I confronted him one day after he shut my door when i just burped randomly while on the computer not making any other noise. I said "Why do you always have to shut my door to the computer room" he stated "Because you are being disrespectful by burping".I laughed and said "burping? Its normal *laugh*, and if you really cared you should shut your door if you don't want to hear anything". he then said "no" then I said "no one wants to hear your music either we can hear it coming down the hall." he then said "no i don't have to." Then I walked away and the conversation ended. TLDR - Gf's bro thinks i'm to loud and shuts my door. It seems he just wants to be the alpha male in the household. I'm 2x his size.Should I confront him the next time again he does it , go shut his door? Am I being petty by making this a issue or should I let him do what he wants? Should I tell him to get earbuds/headphones like I use? Anytime i confront him about an issue he gets real defensive and I can see him getting mad real quick.
The Daily Autist, By An Autist, For Autists. 03/24/20
The Daily Autist
Hot Off The Spectrum
TLDR of the News to Inform Your Moves (Monday was a lot. Even my post is long)
What’s up sluts. I’m back with another burst of autism. I’ve been Rick fuggin Rollin in the tendies (AKA not hemorrhaging money) and these posts have been fairly accurate. I’ll be adding plays to the NostraLosses section as a result to bring more clarity to my dumbass takes. FIRST THINGS FUCKING FIRST THE ORIGINAL AUTIST ARTIST WHO DREW THE OLD LOGO HAS COME TO LIGHT IM SO FUCKING HAPPY. We’ll never get it back, but sometimes closure on it’s own feels good enough. What am I a fucking teenager? The rest of the sub was shit yesterday/this morning.I was shadowbanned for posting “Fear mongering Corona Content,” and yet 75% of the sub’s hot posts are exactly that but with even less info than I had. Rest is memes. No plays or info. Honestly kinda sad. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fnpz20/hey_yall_i_drew_the_original_baby_ama/ Obligatory Corona Dump (Monday news could not stop throating COVID content) Things are in such a Twilight Zone State Amazon is getting credit for being “altruistic,” like they didn’t hike up prices since late January themselves and only altered their practices once Trump threatened Defense Production Act (DPA) notice they’re also only suspending, so once things are just slightly back to normal please price gouge errthang. https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3076638/amazon-suspends-almost-4000-seller-accounts-unfairly-priced-products Costco is also getting unwarranted credit. They won’t take back your tower of toilet paper or tub of hand sanitizer, which COSTS them money they already made. Did they have any problem hiking the price, refusing to limit sales per person, not give their employees PPE, or donate any relief from their excess food products due to banning eating at the location and numbers going down? Nah? ok. So the good guy is the company that profited off of fear and won’t provide the minimum financial relief to those who thought it was that extreme. Stop demonizing your fellow worker citizens. https://brobible.com/culture/article/costco-toilet-paper-returns-hoarders/ Companies getting high praise and both articles implying a return to normalcy soon. How does that affect the markets? Normies are being told everything is okay and they will follow suit. Is everything okay? Absolutely not. These MFs in charge just announced unlimited QE yesterday nothing’s okay financially. Retard normie pump coming in. Financial News: Trump is saying that unless 10,000 die in the streets soon he’s gonna “re-open” the economy after the 15 days. At this point it’s a bit of a walking Onion article. Thursday?” ITS A WAR WE WILL CAPTURE AND KNIFE COVID’S ASSHOLE”. Friday? “This is serious. I do not want to use any drastic measures but I will. This is very verry serious.” Monday? “Isn’t being stuck inside fucking wack? Let’s open the pit up bro” I recommend watching the video with subtitles to get a transcript of his speech patterns. https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/america-will-again-and-soon-be-open-for-id701434357?chan=9qsux198 I predicted the Fed couldn’t devalue the dollar as fast as other countries could want it and it seems to be holding up. A very small dip from the news they’re willing to print unlimited moneys? The global economy is in trouble if that's still the stability bearer. Puts are lookin good, but they need to be farther out. 04/17 soonest for my comfort. Especially with the temporary re-open of the US economy. Seeing Reuters use “money bazooka,’ multiple times in the last week has been fantastic. https://www.reuters.com/article/global-forex/forex-dollar-slips-as-feds-money-bazooka-raises-hopes-of-easier-cash-supply-idUSL4N2BH2AF Italy’s debt, tax, and unemployment relief are all being held up by congressional disputes and an ability to only handle a tenth of the paperwork that comes in. Sound familiar? Maybe ominous? The population density in regions of Italy is our closest analog to how a free (eat my dick South Korea) country is gonna get hit. Their healthcare system is also tainted by for-profit companies and insurance so it’s also pretty similar medical coverage wise per capita. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-banks-insight/banks-struggle-to-ride-to-the-rescue-in-europes-cash-crunch-battle-idUSKBN21B0OE United Airlines is threatening to fire workers if they don’t get a bailout. I hope to fuck this is the tipping point and the government forces United to hand over their payroll list so the gov. Provide financial relief to their employees while United liquidates their assets or sells to some Saudi Conglomerate. Effect on market? PUTS ON UNITED BITCH THEY GOIN OUT https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/819401028/united-airlines-threatens-to-cut-jobs-if-coronavirus-aid-package-isnt-passed(From 03/20 but was drowned out by other news. Looks more and more likely airlines won’t be bailed out) Everyday Fox business posts something for Boomers to buy more Ford or Dine stocks (idk what old people buy) and today they have some good ammo. Overnight futures were up. Pre-market today as of 06:31 EST is $234.72 after touching 238. Looks like today is going to be the bull trap day as the rumors of stimulus are hot again. If it gets passed I expect a 245-248 top before the unemployment numbers Thursday fist everyone. Market effect? Short term calls as everyone gets high on optimism and long term puts for when they come down. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-futures-gain-ground-as-congress-moves-closer-to-a-stimulus-deal Crypto is taking off after tanking yesterday. Overnight rally (NZ markets followed by Asian markets) carried it up 14% in the last 16 hours. It started to rise slowly after the QE announcement but really flew overnight and this morning. Cooling off now but already had a dip to 6650 and right back up to 6700+ While not always correlated, crypto is a key indicator right now in speculative confidence while people are budgeting for maintaining their lives versus increasing their future wealth. No link because every crypto site is owned by a Ponzi schemer. Fight me and my tinfoil fucking hat. Here are some squigglies and bars https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITBAY My NostraLosses Prediction? The rumors of stimulus and the passed unlimited QE will provide market optimism today and tomorrow. Thursday’s unemployment numbers is the next scheduled big news so I wouldn’t get any short term puts unless scalping. If anything unexpected news could bring the market even higher with it being random good news versus any random catastrophic news. Market open will be up about 6% from the previous day’s close, so I expect a short term dip at open which would be a good spot to get quick calls to then ride the pump. Market closes above 235 and if stimulus passes along with more false optimism statements by Trump there’s possibly a sharp bull run to 245-248 by end of Wednesday. Plays to follow: SPY: 240c 03/27 once the first dip of day happens. If your bankroll allows for a few days farther out I would go for it. If SPY does hit 240, SELL call and BUY put for 228 04/01 at soonest. DIA: 190P 04/17 It hasn’t fallen nearly as hard as it should (another 5% imo) and the industries making it up are going to have numbers showing how bad the payroll cuts and profit loss has been. During today’s pump get some not so fucking expensive puts (made sure not to say cheap) Any Stupid Tech Company: Retarded OTM call for 03/27 or later. With so many people being stuck at home the last week or so the tech companies are outperforming the market with the idea that: The high user rate means more $$$, but if there’s more people on because they are not working or laid off, how do they have the money to buy shitty sponsored products on their feed? The kicker here is ads have always had near useless efficacy rates on social media so the fact they will continue to do a shit job might not change much. Anyway people are fucking dumb and tech gonna continue to rally this week. Signed, someone with 1.5k in TWTR Puts expiring over next 4 weeks. Most people don’t even give you one play. I’m giving you multiple ways to lose your money. TLDR of my TLDR: Companies who profited off the crisis getting karma points for no reason. Normies think the crisis will be over next Friday. International currencies are still erratic but the markets are rallying today globally (sign of lacking underlying stability for said rally). Italy can’t pass anything or handle the paperwork from their previously set up process (AKA USA in 7-10 days under current stimulus proposals) and they don’t have a solution in sight. Stimulus has everyone rock hard for calls again, ride the short term rise and pick up puts while you’re up there. Just be a long term gay bear experimenting with bulls depending on the day. Results on my thoughts from last post 03/23: I was incorrect on circuit breaker open but was only 1% away and it did run up mid-day as called. So if you sold at 218 to buy calls to sell a few hours later, we nailed it boys. If you were aiming for price instead of time, it never hit 234 again which was a key test and you’re likely sitting on a fat red option right now. I was about half right which is all you need to be. I’ve also switched up Market affect and effect because I’m retarded and am unsure which is right anymore. Nvm grammarly fixed it. And again, I mean this sincerely,
Hey guys I'll make this short and sweet. I'm a senior in highschool and I'm trying to get into forex. I was walking into this bathroom and this random kid comes up to me like a shady drug dealer he's like "yo u wanna make some money get in imarketslive it's just 200 dollars itll help u with forex". Keep in mind this is the 2nd time a kid came up to me with this bullshit. I end up looking this company up and apparently they been sued a whole bunch of times, they get minors to do their dirty work, and ontop of that it's a pyramid scheme. I'm still stuck in a rut tho I'm thinking I got to read all these 500+ page books on how to read charts n shit and understand wtf I'm looking at(I hate reading but ik it's the only great way to obtain knowledge) I'm having a hard time finding good resources and books that actually teach me how to start investing or using forex. Everything is about the philosophy of investing. Can you guys help me out?
Kuvera GenXT: My personal review (was a part of it for several months so trust me when I say it’s not worth it)
Initial price: $250 USD Monthly price: $229 USD (gets waived if 3 people STAY on your team) Compensation plan: earn $500 USD a month if you introduce 12 people, $1000 USD a month if you introduce 40 people, $2000 USD a month if you introduce 100 people. IMPORTANT NOTES: • these people need to stay in your organization each month, if one leaves you need to recruit another- so the whole residual income (money paid to you each month no matter what) thing is a lie. • if you bring in one person and that person brings 6 others, they all count towards you. (Hence why it’s a pyramid scheme) • your tree has to be “balanced” meaning that one person can only count towards 50% of your volume. For example: if you’re aiming towards the business builder rank (12 people), and you have a star recruiter on your team, only 6 people from that star recruiters team will count towards you. So warning the residual income definitely is not as easy as it looks. I initially joined because I really wanted to learn how to invest but I didn’t know where to start. I saw one of the bigger leaders post about the opportunity on thier ig so I decided to join. I was really sceptical at first but my “upline” sent me proof it was legit: A+ rating on BBB (which is bs) , a yahoo finance article, and the company was registered with the SEC. Something still seemed fishy but I brushed it aside (dumb idea). From that day on I was told to go to as many different “opportunity” events as possible so I learn how to pitch the idea, and get my 3 people needed for a free membership. At first I really liked it, everyone was friendly and I felt I was doing something good. However, when I started investing I realized how difficult investing was. ALL of thier trading channels that you’re supposed to “copy and paste” alerts from are complete trash. I did everything I was told (place the alert at consistent allocation, don’t be too risky etc) yet I was either losing money or breaking even each week. One week a leader will say “follow this channel it’s really good” the next week you try it it’s trash again. There was no consistency at all which is needed if you actually want to make profits with forex. Moreover the actual forex education was horrible, the kuvera videos were no help and most “traders” weren’t knowledgeable. If you want to learn from am-mature university students, be my guest and join. The deeper I got in, the more difficult it got. I was told that I had to post everyday on social media because consistency is the key to success (or so they say). I did that for several months and although I got a few people enrolled, many dropped out eventually. I also had a difficult time recruiting because we weren’t supposed to mention the price (because it’ll scare people), and we weren’t supposed to mention kuvera since a quick google search can reveal a lot of negative things. Instead our goal was to just peak people’s interest and get them out to an event or online webinar where one of the leaders explain it in the least sketchiest way possible. Looking back, I spent a LOT of time on social media as well as the “special events” and even though I’m supposed to have more freedom since it’s not a 9-5 job, it was the complete opposite. If I missed an event my up-lines made me feel guilty and bad about skipping. My team eventually grew to many people, and I was told I had to start “being a leader” and leading by example. I was told to go to every event, host my own events, and cold market everywhere. This blew my mind because the whole reason I joined was because I wanted more time to myself, yet I felt I had less and less. I eventually got fed up because there was barely any trading training, so I slowly stopped going. And that, is when I finally got my common sense back :) . I noticed the following: 1.) a lot of the top leaders who preach that they’ve achieved financial freedom are far from the opposite. They’re either struggling with getting their first 3 people and are just faking how it “changed their life”, or they’re at either bb or exec (500-1000) a month which is barely anything compared to if you got a J.O.B. 2.) Nobody mentions their losses during their presentations. When the leader of GenXT (Matt) asks the “team” how much money they made with the system, it’s always the same people. They rotate them and mix it up every now and then but in general it’s the same pitch. If you want an idea of what the system is actually like, ask different people in the room to show you their profits from day one. Not today, not last week but their entire track record.
They want you to “stay close to the fire” and attend as many events and webinars as possible so you stay brainwashed
4.) All of the team culture events (restaurants, basketball games etc) are all there to distract you from the fact that not many people are making profits. 5.) Don’t believe everything you see on social media. They may be posting lavish lifestyles but every single trip they take together (Florida, Mexico etc) was paid individually. The company does not pitch in for anything. We were actually encouraged to go on these random trips because it creates more marketing content and shows people you’re making money. 6.) I noticed a few members were using demo accounts and posting their results on ig which is very misleading. If you see people making $300+ a day and using crazy allocations, just know they either: have a lot of capital, are risking their entire account, or they’re using a demo. 7.) You need A LOT of money to invest into forex in order to make a liveable profit. Either that or you need to be highly skilled, and trust me you won’t learn anything from kuvera. 8.) All the top leaders that make money through residual or forex are literally glued to thier phones. What’s the point of joining something like this and not having a moment of peace? Why not just get a job at least you’ll have weekends in peace. 9.) They talk a lot of shit about jobs but they’re not all that bad. At least you get paid for everything you do, you could put in 100 hours to an mlm and not receive anything in return. And jobs have health benefits, sick days, and sometimes even paid vacations. 10.) If you’re a part of an mlm you’re not a “business owner”. You’re a sales representative for the company. 11.) A lot of the people involved in mlm’s are literal vultures. They’re always looking for people to recruit everywhere they go which is sad. 12.) mlm’s ARE pyramid schemes, they just hide behind a product so they can legally operate. 13.) MLM’s like kuvera sell a dream rather than a product. They claim you can be your own boss, and become financially free just because the distributers see a few big leaders living that way. There are countless webinars and training sessions that motivate you to keep going and never give up, because the people at the top depend on the people at the bottom. The whole point of creating a team culture, is to make sure that people continue to have the right “mindset”, and to make sure their people do too. Because duplication is the most effective way to create strong recruiters. And although it is possible to make lots of money if you’re good at selling, the entire mlm system is flawed. You could be making loads of money from recruits, but at the expense of potentially hurting a lot of the people you bring in. After all, if no one pays the monthly fee, the company would not be able to pay their distributers. Some of you may be reading this and thinking I’m pretty stupid for falling for a scheme like this, and you’re right. I lost more than $1500 just from paying the monthly fees but I kept going because my uplines convinced me that it took one of the biggest leaders (rakan khalifa) a year before he made it to his rank. It took me a long time to even find the courage to quit because everyone knew I was in it. I didn’t want to make it seem like I gave up because it was embarrassing. But I’m glad I did. If you’re a part of it right now the best thing to do is walk away, but ofc the choice is up to you.
Strat for 50 - 100% a Year - Common Points, Example of Setup 3 and First Weeks Results.
Part 1 Part 2 We're going to start this post with dealing with common heckles. Some people have heckled me already in this posting series. I know from having done things like this publicly a few times before there are catchphrase heckles to be dealt with, and we'll do this one and for all here. If I've linked you here, you've done a FMH (Frequently Made Heckle). If you're not a heckler, you can skip the line break for the strategy stuff, but this section may still be interesting for you. FMH 1 : Elliot wave does not work all the time. I know. The clock in my living-room does not work all the time. If it tells me it's 2am and I look out and it's broad day light, I use some discerning judgement based on my experience of looking out of a window, and I suspect it may be incorrect. If it tells me it's 8.30am and I look out and see little kids with school bags walking past the window, I suspect the clock may have a point. When I write all the rules and exceptions in my posts, I am not doing this to make the posts longer. These are rules and exceptions designed to describe situations when it probably is happening. Of course it does not "Always work". I am not say it does. Your assumption I have not thought through the same extraordinary simplistic, "But, what if ...." questions is either you under estimating me, over estimating you, or both. FMH 2 : Fibs levels do not work, studies show it is as good as random. Two points. Firstly, I've read some of these studies. These hypothetical things done by people who have never traded in the market and want to produce intellectual ideas about it. While reading through the method of the experiment it's apparent to me it won't work. I could save them some time if they call me and tell me their hypothesis; "Nope. You'll lose about 20% a year doing that. Good general idea. Okay starting point, but you get fucked here, here and here. Work on that". I will not value the opinion of someone paid to write papers on fibs over my experience being paid to trade them. I will not go out my way to try to get you to value my opinion. I've learned people will either test things I say and know the truth of them for their selves with me posting the amount of interesting evidence/results that I do, and others would not test it if I posted a million examples. Point two. Not perfect does not mean not practical. Fib levels do not react absolutely perfectly. I suspect the reason for this is so many people use them to put stops behind these days. In days gone by, they were probably more accurate, but as stop clusters became more predictable and concentrated this change. Game theory sort of stuff. Read more about my thoughts on this here. The thing is, for those who pay enough time and attention, there are patterns of when the fibs either do work very well, or "do not work" in the exact same way over and over again. If they do "not work" in the same way over and over, that's the same as working to me. I am looking for patterns to trade for profit. Not to compile a pretty chart of data points as to if price turned specifically on the 61.8 over a million samples. FMH 3 - "Everything you're saying is wrong", "You're an idiot", "I am non-specifically and non-constructively disagreeing" (Yeah, people drop that last one, verbatim, all the time) Pics, or it didn't happen. I am willing to "get up here" so to speak and succeed or fail in front of everyone. I'm posting what I do, and explaining all my rational. Results are being tracked. Time and continuity will display my outcomes. Is there a way you suggest you can provide stronger proof I am wrong that I am proposing to prove I am right? If you're just saying you think I am stupid, because you know the market so much better than me my standard reply is as follows; " If you'd like to propose, explain and track a strategy you think will outperform this we can both keep our records and that will best determine who's opinions have profitability. It seems something that would be good for the community. " Pics or it didn't happen. Only analysts and economists are paid for opinions. My job demands a far more practical approach. FMH 4 - "What REALLY happened with (insert news related thing) this and your guesses were just lucky". If I said it would happen yesterday, then set trades for it happening and profited from them today; it does not matter to me the reason you give me for it tomorrow. If you choose to view the market as being like this, you may. If it ever does start to become more relevant to me making profits or not, I will pay attention to other things. Right now, I do not follow them closely and that has never mattered. Either I am consistently lucky, physic or right. Pick the flavor for you. I will not engage in conversation on any of these points coming from a closed minded perspective. By which I mean you only commenting to tell me why you're right. If you feel someone has to add balance with these comments, go ahead. I encourage people to be scientific in their approach and having different viewpoints helps with this. Do your own experiments. I will answer honest questions, and will gladly engage people who disagree with me and do so from the perspective of personal study. Usually we can both learn and teach if both of us have firsthand knowledge. This is rare, but enjoyable. ================================================================================================== On to GBPUSD. As I said may be possible in the previous post, the trade for the bigger run up post Chicago was missed. This can happen. It's better to miss bad opportunities than squander good money on bad ones, and at the time I had the option of entering, there was no way to tell the difference between these - so I did nothing. Later in the day price continued to be consistent with the formations of a spike pattern. Here I engaged the market. GBPUSD 1 Minute My entering pattern was to first open two small trades with a 13 pip stop. This was an emergency stop, I always planned to tighten it up (it'd only hit in the event of an immediate capitulation). The risk here was about 0.15%. When the market moved a bit lower, I entered more positions and having more data felt better about where to place stops. All stops went to 6 pips or less (bigger position, same starting risk). As price reached the best level, I opened my largest trade. Stop went from 3 - 6 pips with big stops being 2 pips. Effective stop something like 3-4 pips. Targets hit for 10 - 12 pips, giving an effective pay off on risk just short of 1:3. I do not use aggressive position sizing in this part of the trade (usually it already carries made profits), so the net risk was low. Around 0.25%. Net gain in positions was 0.6%. GBPUSD 1 min From left to right the positions get bigger. Notice also the biggest position (low) takes profit a good bit before where I forecast the high (bulk close). This trade hitting should give assurance of breakeven on this trade, so the risk on capital is gone on this trade on a double top move, then profits accumulated in the breakout. Results for the day; https://preview.redd.it/96zq7cy1j9i31.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=d324348621a5c0931a90de207fe8aebb116f934d Current Gain = 0.65% Max risk exposure possible - 0.4% Max real equity drawdown - < 0.2% Due to not being entirely available for trading today this was a big under-performance of what the strategy could have achieved. It's been a decent example day to show the logistics of how the trades can form. To make 2 - 3% today with the same draw-down was possible.
I originally made this exact post around two years ago when I first started at my current employer. It may just be me but I feel like I’ve started to see more frequent posts about getting out of the Army lately so I figured I’d update my post and repost. For context, I was an active duty Officer. I did four years at Bragg in the lovely 82nd Airborne and got out as a CPT at the four year mark. I spent almost 70 days on terminal leave watching game of thrones and started as a management consulting Associate at a Big 4 firm (Deloitte, KPMG, PwC, EY) on my ETS date. I don’t have a beautiful Harvard MBA. I don’t have an amazing name brand undergrad. I understand that this advice may not be as applicable for everyone depending on what you want you to do. Some of this unsolicited advice is good for everyone but somethings are more specific to industries that are historically harder to break into (consulting, banking, etc.) I worked very hard at creating a seamless transition from the Army into corporate America and I learned a lot during the 12 months I focused on transitioning. I care about our Veterans and their success post-military should you decide to get out. I wanted to dump some of my thoughts here and things I’ve learned in the hopes I can help some of you. I am going to be very blunt because there are a lot of misconceptions surrounding getting out. I look forward to your shit talking in the comments.
First things first, preparing to transition is a 2nd full time job. You can save your “officers don’t do shit so no wonder you had so much time to focus on getting out” If you care, you’ll find the time. I promise I would have rather hung out with my kid and wife after work instead of studying interview questions, practicing my “story” and trolling through LinkedIn for potential contacts. A successful out will require a lot of work and effort and is taxing. Remember this, the Army doesn’t give a shit about you once you hit your final out. They may force you to go the dentist now and tell you your uniform looks like a bag of shit but once you hit terminal leave, all of that is over. It is your responsibility and your responsibility alone to ensure your success. The services provided by Army are not sufficient. I recently spent some time with the a very senior CSM out of TRADOC and we discussed this. He recently separated from the Army and attended the full ACAP program with the junior enlisted group and was not thrilled.
If you think for second your military experience is going to carry you into your next job and every company is going to want to hire you, gov or private, you’re more wrong. Listen, I appreciate your service. Your potential employer appreciates your service. They don’t appreciate it so much to hand you a job. Their interest is in the success of that business. If you are not value-added to the bottom line, you don’t get the job. I had an ACAP instructor that literally said “Fortune 500 companies want you because you’re a vet. They want to hire you. You just have to help them find your resume by posting it online.” THIS IS BULLSHIT AND NOT HOW IT WORKS (see next point). This is especially true for Officers and senior NCOs. No one gives a shit you are a CPT/MAJ/1SG/SGM. You are no better than an E-5 that is prepared and can smoke the shit out of an interview and network their ass off.
You need to develop a well thought out strategy of how you want to approach your post service employment. This should start nearly a year out. I started 12 months from my transition date. Your strategy should include: IDing your strengths and what you bring to the table. I’m really happy you can hump your 240 better than anyone else in your weapons squad. I am also very happy you can make stupidly complex OPORDs. If you don’t know how to properly articulate your skills, your resume will be shit, your interviewing will be shit, and most of all your success as a job searcher will be shit. ID your weaknesses and shortfalls. Best way to do this is to find live job postings that interest you and look at the requirements posted. What do you meet and what do you not? This is a great way to check and see if this is a realistic position to pursue. If you don’t meet a requirement, is it something that you can change? Project management certification? Sure, you can go get that. 15+ years experience at a hedge fund implementing forex arbitrage strategy? Probably not. Create a list of target employers. What companies interest you? Why do they interest you? Is it because they advertise that they have ping-pong tables in the break room (wrong reason) or is it because you are interested in their work and your skills and experiences translate well? (good reason). Your target employers will drive the next point and I personally think the most important point.
NETWORK continuously and constantly. I can’t say it enough. Networking is the single most vital point of your entire transition in securing post-service employment. This point is hard for a lot of people but if you care about what you’re going to do after the Army, get over it. For a lot of people networking is synonymous with slimy cold calls where you are interested in getting something for yourself and it is an awkward and uncomfortable process. It doesn’t have to be this way. Think of it this way. What do you think will result in a better outcome? Emailing someone you’ve never talked to 7 days before your final out asking for them pass along your resume because you like their company or does it sound better to email someone 12 months out from your transition because you are interested in learning more about their experiences and career field and this leads to a mentomentee relationship that develops over months’ time so THEY want to help you find a job. THEY are willing to reach out on your behalf. It is also a hell of a lot less awkward when you ask them to pass along your name because you have an established relationship. Asking someone to take actionable steps on your behalf is much easier if you have a relationship with the person. You all already do this but you may not even realize it. How often have you called a friend in another company, battalion or unit asking for a favor? “Hey can I borrow an LMTV, all our shit is deadlined.” “”Hey, I need 15x chutes on your airborne op on Tuesday to get some guys current.” Do you stop a random person at the Shoppette to ask these questions or do you call someone you know that for one reason or another, knows you and your reputation. Set up informational interviews, send out your resume to your contacts to be reviewed. Ask a civilian to take your resume into their workplace and have their coworkers highlight everything they don’t understand and then give it back so you know what military terminology you need to clarify or remove. Participate in LinkedIn groups for transitioning military. At one point, I had so many contacts at so many of my target companies, I had to use a spreadsheet to organize their contact information, the last time we talked, what we talked out, and when we were going to talk next. I would develop the relationships over long periods of time so when it came time for them to act on my behalf, it wasn’t an inappropriate request. I had created buy-in. They had a vested interest in my success and wanted to go out on a limb for me. Whether it was for some self-serving reason and they liked to feel better about themselves or they genuinely cared, it didn’t matter. They were helping me. I was leveraging that connection.
Lastly, utilize the resources available to you and veterans. I'm not going to explain them all but if you want more info, ask. LinkedIn, HireOurHeroes, American Corporate Partners, ACP AdvisorNet, Military MOJO, Veterans Mentor Network, FourBlock, company specific veteran hiring initiatives (GE, Goldman Sachs, Pepsi, Coke, Bank of America, Deloitte, etc).
I have friends, Officer and Enlisted, that have followed the same path and took the same steps that I did. I have Enlisted friends in Ivy League MBA programs, friends at Wharton, JPMorgan Chase, Deloitte, Goldman Sachs, Google, Facebook, big time consulting firms, engineering firms, etc. I also have friends both Officer and Enlisted that didn’t do shit to plan ahead and are feeling the burn. I’ll leave you with the best analogy I’ve heard about getting out of the military. In the Army, you don’t do anything of value without extensive preparation. The 3 shop kills themselves during the MDMP process refining the plan, the companies and platoons do rock drills, walk-through talk-throughs, PCCs and PCIs, comms checks, weapons checks, blah blah blah. That pattern of preparation and attention to executing a plan doesn’t change when you start to get out. You develop a strategy, target employers, networking contacts, you think through your answers to hundreds of interview questions, you rehearse your elevator pitch and your answer to “tell me about yourself”. Getting out of the Army isn’t the time to start slacking on preparation. I could ramble on about this topic forever but I won’t. If you have questions, shoot me a note. If you want to tell me to fuck off, I’ll lovingly accept that too. Edit: sounds like there is a lot of interest in consulting. I'd encourage you to check out Consulting to read people bitching about the industry the way everyone here bitches about the army, just with a tad more elitism.
[Itinerary] 2 week Japan trip to Tokyo (4 day), Osaka (3 day), Kyoto (3 day) and back to Tokyo (3 day)
Hi all Me and my wife are all set for a long awaited trip to Japan. Below is the itinerary we have in mind, will be mighty grateful for any inputs you can give. What I’m particularly looking for - can you think of and flag which of the below activities would be difficult because of Christmas/New Year season? We’re travelling with:
7 day JR pass
No Suica - relying on Forex prepaid Card
4 day Tokyo rail pass for all travel in Tokyo (part 1)
2 day Osaka rail pass for all travel in Osaka
2 day Kyoto rail pass for all travel in Kyoto
3 day Tokyo rail pass for all travel in Tokyo (part 2)
Day 1 (Sunday, 23rd December, Tokyo)
Land in Japan at 8 AM. Collect JR Pass + Pocket wifi @ airport. Buy tokyo rail 4 day pass, and travel to Hotel in Akasaka
Check in to hotel by 12ish.
Explore Tokyo Skytree
Explore Asahi Beer Headquarters (we want to go to the bar on 22nd floor, which others have spoken about)
Day 2 (Monday, 24th December, Tokyo)
Morning 6 AM - Watch Sumo practice @Takasago-beya Sumo Stable (we will call up the day before to see if the wrestlers are available for practice or not)
Walk around randomly in the area for breakfast
Midday- explore Odaiba (particulrly Miraikan, Ghost School and Venus Fort, don't think any of these require reservations)
Evening - go for a standup comedy show (bookings already done), so need to reach Asakusa by 6 PM
After the show explore Golden Gai - just exploring random spots for snacks+drinks
Day 3 (Tuesday, 25th December, Tokyo)
Nikko day trip
We’ll go to Tobu-Asakusa station and get the 2 day world heritage pass
We’ll explore Nikkozan Rinnoji Temple, Nikko Futarasan Shrine, Taiyuin Mausoleum, since not much else is covered in the 2-day pass
Leave Nikko by 6 PM, then see if we need to make any on the spot plans for evening, depending on how much time is left/how tired we are
Day 4 (Wednesday, 26th December, Tokyo)
Explore a cat cafe in Asakusa/Akihabara area
Lunch at Idea restaurant (wanna try Kobe beef!)
Explore Takeshita Dori
Try a hedgehog cafe!
Explore Jimbocho (bookstore area)
Day 5 (Thursday, 27th December, Tokyo TO Osaka)
Travel to Osaka using JR pass in morning
Reach hotel by lunch, check in
Relax, explore Dotonbori in evening
Day 6 (Friday, 28th December, Osaka)
Airbnb experience - exploring Osaka cycling adventure - this will be from 10 AM to 2 PM
Visit Osaka castle after that
Explore some nice Ramen shop for dinner
Day 7 (Saturday, 29th December, Osaka)
Day trip to Miyajima, Horishima using JR Pass (this day is planned rough so far)
Leave hotel by 9 AM
Finish Miyajima activities by 3 PM
Check out Hiroshima on the way back
Leave Hiroshima by 7 PM
Day 8 (Sunday, 30th December, Osaka TO Kyoto)
Check out of hotel, use JR pass to travel to Kyoto
Check in to Airbnb (this is near Kamo river, so if you have any suggestions please feel free to tell!)
Day 9 (Monday, 31st December, Kyoto)
Visit Fushimi Inari
Dinner at an Izakaya
Day 10 (Tuesday, 1st January, Kyoto)
Day trip to Nara and back using JR Pass
Visit Nakatanidou - really looking forward to seeing those mochi beatings!
Once the mocha tasting is done will spend some time in Nara and travel back to Kyoto
Day 11 (Wednesday, 2nd January, Kyoto TO Tokyo)
Keeping this empty, to do random, spontaneous stuff
Might try to go for the Emperor’s address, but will skip if it’s likely to be too crowded
Day 12 (Thursday, 3rd January, Tokyo)
Keeping this empty, to do random, spontaneous stuff
Mostly explore Akihabara
I want to see if I can get a pass for Ghibli museum or not, since I think they open up at the beginning of every quarter
Day 13 (Friday, 4th January, Tokyo)
Keeping this empty, to do random, spontaneous stuff
Guys, for those of you in the beginning stages of trading, a tip of advice that will save you. DON'T TAKE ADVICE FROM THE INTERNET. Look I have been trading on and off for four years. I laugh when people call me an expert. I am not. In fact, there is no such thing as a forex expert. You can't predict this shit. There are tools to help you make a prediction, but in the end of the day, forex is entropy. It is chaos and complete randomness. The next time someone tells you they are an expert, walk away. This shit isn't a science or get rich scheme. It is a way to expand disposable wealth, and by disposable I mean 10k minimum trading account. You aren't going to become a multimillion dollar LLC or have shell companies in belize to hold your forex profits over night, with your tiny 1k account. Keep it simple. Don't be stupid. Do your research, read, read, read. If you find yourself trading once or twice a week, because you are waiting for a particular price and your conditions of indicators. Good for you, that's what you should do. If it enters your set up, great, if not, oh well. And thats the hard part, patiece. Take for example a few days ago, i wanted to sell euro at 1.14, but the highest it went was 1.139. Oh well. We will get it next week. You are your own expert. By seeking others predictions and ideas, for example on tradingview, you are going to get overloaded with information. Great ideas, I will give you that, but you will find alot will contradict each other, though each one do have valid points and reasonig. Avoid that shit. The truth is you have to sit yourself for a day and look at the price action yourself, than see if the same pattern happens the second day, recognize that pattern than enter a trade. Don't use all your leverage. Go cheap and achieve small incrimental growth. Don't be a hero. You have to do everything yourself. I love this sub, but take everything "experts" tell you with a grain of salt. Good luck guys. And remember, there is no such thing as a forex "expert". Everyone is just winging it, no one really knows what they are talking about. You can't control entropy.
Is this the best way to model the Forex market? After all, it doesn't follow a random walk just look at fundamentals that incorporate interest rates, inflation, gdp etc Source: http://stock.tradingninja.com/modern-probability-theory-for-stock-traders/ So my question is that if one factors in probability theory can one understand the movement of the currency market more efficiently?
Valuable information for new investors Warning. Looooong post. TL:DR in the bottom. Recently I have been chatting a ton with people who are very new to investing. I don’t claim to have mastered anything, however I have been able to help a lot of people through chats and messages. I’ve given advice and answered questions, and through that I found out a lot of problems new people run into, and decided to compile some of the points I found important. I will start this with the primary compiled information I usually give people when prompted, and then move on to specific questions I found important. A final note is that this is my own opinion and views, so feel free to disagree! I’d love input, even if I feel confident about this advice. First off I’d recommend searching for posts about starting out & learning the basics, both here and on other investing/trading subreddits. The question has been asked hundreds of times, and you’ll find some amazing answers if you look. The first thing you need to understand is that finance is all about information. If you want to learn, you need to take in information. All of the information. Books, news, financial statements, press releases and earning calls. Read everything. You will find hundreds of words you don’t understand, so look them up (investopedia have a majority of them). In the beginning you will struggle, however, as time goes by, you will start to understand. If you do not like reading, learn to like it. There is no way around this. If you find yourself investing without reading tons, you are going to lose. Books to recommend: Anything written by Warren Buffet, A random walk down wall street by Burton Malkiel (how I started), Stress test by Timothy Geithner & The intelligent investor (“thick” but all important). Pick out your favorite company in the world, and check if they are public. If they are, head over to their investor relations page and read the transcript to their latest earnings call. Read their financial statement (10-Q). If you don’t understand a word, look it up. This is frustrating but required. This method of reading, finding things you do not understand and looking it up (and learning it), will be the absolute unavoidable key to improvement. There are 3 things you should consider buying as your first investment: Large cap companies. These are the most risky you should consider buying. These large companies (Apple, Banks, Microsoft, 3M, JnJ, Walmart and the like) are stable, but can for sure give you a great return. Specific ETFs. An ETF is a basket of stocks, often with some sort of focus. It gives you instant diversification. The specific ETFs are less risky than the single stocks, but hold risk nonetheless. Specific ETFs are baskets of stocks of varying number, letting you buy one security, and get a tiny portion of many companies. This lets you bet on a sector. Say you think that robotics and automation is the future, you can bet on that by investing in $ROBO. Other examples of these are $KWEB, chinese e-com, $FNG, media and tech, $ITA, aerospace and defence and $SOXX, semiconductors. These let you invest in a promising industry, without having the risk of a single company failing. Lastly, and by far the best choice, is indexing. These are ETFS like $VOO, $VTI, $VWO and $VOOG, and is a way to take on the least amount of risk while still gaining along with the market. You get a wide basket of stocks, focusing on things like the S&P500 ($VOO), which is an index of large (minimum 6.1 billion USD) US companies. Historically , you can expect 7% annual gain here. That’s realistic. Anything offering much more than that without risk has tons of risk without disclosing it, per definition. $VOOG indexes growth companies, focusing less on the giants and more on the up and coming. $VWO focuses on emerging markets, getting places like brazil, russia and all over asia. Indexing is by far the best choice, and will very often gain you a steady growth. The final and great choice is $VTI, which is the global basket which contains the market as a whole. Remember, if you have to ask simple questions, you should be indexing. Asking questions is very important and a great way to learn, however, you should not make specific investments unless you can make the call 100% yourself with confidence. If you are not sure, you are making a mistake in purchasing. Lastly, and honestly most importantly, here is a list of things you should ALWAYS be able to answer before buying a security, equity or derivative:
Why am I getting this instead of an index? Where is the upside?
If the stock goes up, what action do I take? When do I sell? At what price or % gain.
If the stock goes down, when do I sell? At what % loss or a price.
What risks are there? How does the worst case realistic scenario look like?
Why am I making this investment right now? Is there a better time?
What exactly am I buying?*
And finally, always, without exception, perform your own Due Diligence. Don’t take advice from other people without understanding the situation yourself. If you have to ask questions, you should not own the equity. Ask about what you do not own. If you have to ask questions about an equity you already own, you have messed up, and should rethink your strategy. A last but VITAL note is to keep a journal. You should note down every stock purchase you make or decided to not make, noting down the stock, price, date and answers to the 6 questions. This will help massively over time, where you can look back how you felt before and why you made decisions. It helps to keep temporary emotion out, as well as self reflecting which is the most vital learning method of any craft. Q&A Should I buy cheap stocks like $XXX for 4 dollars per share, or expensive stocks like $YYY for 500 dollars per share? IT DOES NOT MATTER. The price of the individual share have no effect whatsoever on the price of the company, how much you will gain or how much risk there is. If you buy 10 A-stocks for 1 dollashare, and if you buy 1 B-stock for 10 dollars/share, both these purchases are EXACTLY the same, in practice. If stock A gains 10% you earn $1.00, if stock B gains 10% you earn $1.00. Then the stocks are valued at $1.1 and $11 respectively. But there is no different. Don’t let the price of the share fool you. The only thing that matters is the market cap, which is the (number of shares*price of 1 share). The market cap is the cost of ALL the shares in the entire company. Some stocks like being expensive to seem exclusive and expensive, but it’s really the company's choice. What numbers matter the most for the companies so I can compare? Well, that's complicated. DIfferent investors value different things. Some value P/E (price per earnings) and some value margin changes. You have to decide for yourself what matters, which leads to tons and tons of reading. Really, if you don't like reading and analyzing, this isn't something for you. Look at ETFs then. As a rule of thumb, 1 or 2 numbers is not enough to gauge the HUGE and COMPLEX being that is a corporation, so don’t get caught on something like P/E. Compare everything. Will I be able to profit? Probably. As a new investor, especially a young one, will see both success and failure over time. This is natural. I recommend investing a smaller amount of money. Either you will gain a few % and be excited to learn and continue, or you will lose a few % and you find the ultimate opportunity to analyze what your mistake was. Is $XXX enough money? Probably. It depends on your broker and fees. Any amount invested into the market is great, and a 10% increase is a 10% increase no matter how much you invest. Depending on your broker though, it might be easier or harder. With high commission, a smaller amount will be eaten by fees. With smaller amount, some expensive stocks (see $BRK.A) might be out of your reach. This shouldn’t be too much of a problem though. What broker should I use? The best one for you! Hard question. It is country dependent. Look around. You want low commission and any perks you require. To start out, depending on how much money you have to invest, look for low-commission brokers. $0 - $3 is a good range per stock purchase. If you pay more than 2% on your investment, you lose 2% to buy in. This would generally cause stock to not be worth to buy. So do some thinking on your own, to invest you will have to get used to it. Some brokers let you buy partial shares as well, which might be a plus if your capital is low to buy the more expensive stocks. What should I invest in? There are so many things! Like said above, cheap funds and common stock are good places to start. They are the core of investing, and should be your start. After that, move on and understand bonds. It will be all important during your career in investing. On top of that there are warrants, options, forex, commodities, and all kinds of additional derivatives. Stay clear of those completely until you can confidently make the call to try it out. My stock increased/decreased in value. Should I sell? Asking this question means that you weren’t thorough enough when you made the purchase. You should always have it written down on a paper. When do you get out? A valid answer is never. If you believe in the business and they prove themself strong, why ever sell? Some people like selling if they gain 30% or lose 30%. Some do the same on 15% respective 10%. It comes down to how much long term faith you have in the company, when you’ll need the money and what your risk tolerance is. Personally, when I buy a company, I will ignore it until something changes in the core business. I re-analyze each company each earning. It takes a lot of time, but its my method. If I buy something more high risk, I will sell at a set loss-% (20-40% loss) and the same on gain. How does taxes work and how should I plan for taxes? Taxes are hard and complicated, but it is something you must understand how it works. Capital gains taxes are vital to understand. Sadly, they work differently in each country, so there is no easy answer except for you to look up it yourself. But know it, it is vital. To end, these are the most important 4 rules of learning how to do all this:
Keep a journal and record the answers to all 6 questions each time you make a purchase, or decided in the end to not.
Each time in your reading if you come over a concept, word or idea that you do not understand, get used to looking it up and learning what it is. It’s key.
When you succeed, analyze if you got lucky or if your actual reasoning was the correct call. When you fail, analyze what your mistake was and write it down in your journal. Both are vital.
TL:DR: Investing is about reading. You should probably start by reading this now or give up. If you read it all, success! Keep going! Disclaimer: Don't invest money that you can't afford to lose. You might lose all your funds. Probably don't. lykosen11
So I've recently got a scammer through a dating app. We matched and started chatting right away. She was weirdly too invested and sweet, but nothing like the red flags to follow. Over a few weeks we started chatting more frequently and she'd casually drop hints that she had money. Lots of it. Red Flag 1. My spidey senses were tingling but instead of walking away I decided to see where this would lead. I kept being aloof and not pursuing any topic related to money to see how far the scammer would go to try and bait me. We'd often times chat for hours, about mundane things, life and so forth. Sometimes with voice, sometimes, we'd send photos to one another. I admit that after 2 months I was considering the possibility of her just being someone really oblivious about the number 1 rule about finances. (You don't talk about your personal finances, specially to strangers.) Sometimes she'd casually venture back into talking about money, but, as I clearly did not pursue those topics any further, she'd drop it entirely. Interestingly enough, that never kept her from switching topics. 3 Months later... One day she randomly mentioned bitcoin and how she was trying to learn more about it. Me being someone who casually played a bit with it and have some miner friends, I got curious about the topic and indulged her. She was very clueless about how bitcoin actually works, and had no idea it had to be mined. Which was quite interesting, as she was apparently genuinely unfamiliar with anything other than it's value and basic understanding of how the speculation alone was what dictated the price. Eventually she dropped the bombshell. She was part of an exchange and she was making bank through it because a manager in the exchange would advise her on how to make money. CRIMSON DEATH FLAG FROM HELL My eyebrow went up and through the roof. This was it ladies and gentleman. The long game came to a climax (or so I thought). She was about to strike. I aloofly replied saying that sounded cool and I was happy it was working out for her. Doing my best to not let out any emotion whatsoever. She then happily asked me if I wouldn't want to join her on the exchange and have her refer me to the guy who was managing her account. A cocktail of happiness, sadness and anger is the best way to describe my emotions at the time. I was happy the scammer finally came out with her fangs, I was sad because at the end of the day I have to admit I was enjoying chatting with her daily and angry because this girl whom I was chatting through text, audio and even video was clearly someone malicious doing it to take my money. This was the first time I had seen such a long con game, and I have to say. I am genuinely impressed. I recomposed myself, and with a wry smile I thanked her and mentioned I'd consider it maybe into future. It was my turn to play the long game now. She was cheerful about it and casually mentioned she couldn't wait to be able to chat together about bitcoin and make money together. I had a hard time trying not to cringe at the very end of that sentence. Another month rolls by, and we're still casually chatting about daily life. That topic had not come up in a while, and I was at this point actually hoping she'd just bare her fangs again. I'm a patient guy, but for the first time I felt a weird awkward and hard to explain discomfort about this all. This girl was extremely sweet and caring, and I knew deep down that was nothing but a façade. A shallow part of me actually wanted to believe her, which made me most sickened. I kept on pushing forward, and lost track of when she first struck, but eventually she did it again. She brought up the exchange and asked me what I thought about it. I decided to investigate further into the matter, and casually let her tell me about it. She introduced to this shifty guy called Makler on WeChat. Satan's used bog roll flag I spoke to the guy faking interest and got an website address out of him. I Google Searched the domain, lo' and behold: Screenshot There were many other hits, but these alone were definitely the most interesting hits. I've read through it and my heart sank as I read tales of lonely men so desperate they fell for this surface level scam. Curiosity got the best of me and I decided to take a look at the website. I had to see with my own eyes. Screenshot Considering all the money they were making from these poor souls, I was floored that a website this dodgy looking was actually being successful at ripping off people like this. This sad excuse of a website, a waste of bits if you will, did not even have an SSL certificate going for it. The NFA certification was a clear bait and switch for anyone willing to do the most basic of researches, and simplest understanding of how a FOREX works. Yet here we were. Note: I gave up on pointing out red flags at this point. Every single line after the first red flag should be considered a red flag actually. Anyways. I was not done. I was not letting this end here. I was going to waste more time. This person on the other end was going to waste her time. I was not going to let this end easily. Having a hard time not letting my complete disgust show, I said I was going to consider it later, as I had more pressing matters, but we could discuss about it later. Without a beat, and with an angelic smile she says that's totally fine and changes topic. I mentioned I was feeling a bit sick and tired, and said I was going to rest. I ended the video call. Had I not, I would have laid all this effort to waste. I was not doing that. I went out for a bike ride and see if some fresh air would make the washing machine in my stomach go away. A day went by and she messaged me "worried", asking if I was ok, and how was I feeling. I came up with the ploy that I had caught a flu, and was resting. I'll spare you folks the details, but for a while I distanced myself a bit from it, without letting it show. Eventually we went back into our daily tirade. As if nothing had happened. I have to give it to her, she was really good at coming up with topics to talk about, and to make matters worse, she was clearly smart and well read making talking about anything usually a pleasant time. (Except for every other minute where I'd remember this creature in front of me was playing with it's prey, me.) Another month went by. We're 7 months in now. Today she tried again, possibly running out of patience? I decided to end the façade. I had her confirm the website, and then shown her what I had found regarding the site. She faked being in shock, and suggested the possibility of it all being a smear campaign. I could not help but laugh. I asked her why was she doing such a terrible thing. She started to cry. A tear ran down my cheek. I realized I let this person into my life thinking nothing of it, and before I knew, I somehow deep down felt bad for this person. 7 months, where I let this person into my day to day. We'd chat about anything and everything. Almost like an actual relationship between friends. Even tho I knew from the very beginning she meant to harm me, and that nothing of this was real, this hit me like a truck. I disconnected. Turned off my phone, left it to charge and pulled my notebook, where I'm currently typing this. I know how to proceed from here. This sadness will wear off. But what have we humans became?
I mean, it's a random walk like any stock or forex. Unless you have insider info or are doing arberage (spelling?) can't predict it or make money reliably by day trading. This is basic stuff. Sick of seeing people's fancy looking charts. It's all numerology hocus pocus.
So I recently bailed the fuck out, and here's what prompted it. Well, there was that realization that things are primed to implode, obviously, but the final straw was admin-level fuckery. I totally forget if I bitched about it, but one day, for no fucking reason I was locked out of my company bank accounts. The bank had decided that my passport must be valid for "13 years" and the passport I was using was somehow wrong (2006-2016 became 2006-2019). They were not happy about granting me access to my own damn company accounts again, afterall, this was data coming from the infallible central database of objective truth with chinese characteristics. This was the first warning shot to me. I got it fixed up and immediately sucked the accounts dry. Which was a good thing because 24 hours later, they were once again locked out, same reason. Also got a visit claiming that I was not registered with the PSB, which was bullshit, but whatever, in we go to reregister, and again... same problem. Only way to fix this issue was to go into the entry-exit admin building to get someone to correct the issue. I did this, I went in, I got it fixed. It then got unfixed, again, by the next week. Now here's a problem, when you own some significant assets, they are tied to your numbers. I have updated all that shit when swapping passports before, but what happens when your passport is being declared by China as "no good"? My passport was set to expire inside by the end of this summer. I got a new one and started the swapping process. We had already decided we were leaving, but we intended to leave some stuff and make it our second home. Guess what? No can do. When your original passport is being declared as invalid by the system to begin with, you ain't gonna get it swapped out for anything else. System was fucked, and any fix was only lasting for a day or so until it went right back. Unable to register in a way they recognized, all my personal accounts were being locked out, fuck, even entering the country again might be an issue on that passport. The problem becomes very clear... all my property had a very real risk of simply not being mine anymore. I was not alone in this problem. I ran into other foreigners at exit-entry having the same problems, random passport issues that made no sense. In all the fuckery I have run into in China since I first came in 1997, that was a new one for me. This shit was targeted. Passport numbers being off, expiration dates being off, slight misspellings in names, and the same refusal to actually fix it. Now, imagine if your chinese company was not a shell corp and had real shit running? You would be fucked. Imagine if you were getting paid into an account you were locked out of? Imagine you had a mortgage to be paid on an apartment... which was no longer "yours" and you were incapable of paying it due to being locked out, and oh, for some reason you were now living there "illegally" because you were not registered in the system as living there? This is a thing now. It wasn't just me. Might have been blowing it our of proportion, but when combined with everything else.... according to their system, you become a non-person, you are no longer married to your wife, your child is no longer related to you, your property is no longer under your control, and you can be rounded up at any given moment for not being registered. Oh, and staying in a hotel? Yep, failure there as well. They have put together a central database of all valid passports they have run across and no one is responsible for it apparently. If your physical passport does not match their system, you are, by default, in the wrong. If you have assets, you can be targeted in this sneaky way as well. Again, NOT alone here. This has been going on for at least half a year now, starting right around the time of that silly parade. Expect to see more stories from expats in the coming months on this, no one wants to say shit until they are free and clear and have cut all ties. When selling shit off I had to make an extra trip to EE and "fix" my passport issue, then run off to transfer the deeds, car titles, etc. Getting money out, also a massive problem, which I was pointing at. Small amounts of money is not an issue. Try it once you get over 7-figures in freedoms though. Legal documentation means shit to them right now, they don't want to do it. Keep in mind, right now, the banks are all being "top 10ed". As in, all banks in a city or designated area are being ranked on how much forex they are remitting. The top 10 per period are being audited and managers threatened with consequences if they do not stop it. That's enough info in there for the fucktards to identify me, and to them I say: fuck you, I don't care. Thank you for making it obvious though so I could get out at the top of the market! a few months shy of 19 years in that shithole. defending your bullshit for nearly the entire time. advising your fucking soes on legit strategies to become real companies. laying out an entire strategy for your fucking cctv international to become more legit. i was a massive advocate for you, i just wanted to share in it a little, that was it. i helped build my industry in your shithole from the ground up, even when your dipshit company leaders had zero understanding of it and i did workshops to get your brands to actually understand why it mattered. bitter? eh, whatever, I walked with a fuckload. Here's another way to get your cash out of china... in a fucking shipping container... dumbasses, shipped in locked safes. You know who didn't give a fuck yesterday at the port? US customs, when I showed them where the money came from and explained why I did it this way to subvert china capital controls. not a single fuck did they give, nor did they demand a bribe, or a penalty, because hey, rule of fucking law.... IRS gives no fucks either. Scumis and all the other oldfags... keep on eye out for this shit, and be prepared to bail.... and if you're in the process of bailing and liquidating, feel free to hit me up if you need any pointers.
I feel like with all the cheating and drama going on with spot fx we should at the very least have a dedicated section on the right for guidance on futures contracts. The shady Cypriot brokers and ones on other random islands are lying and selling a dream so let's take a look at the reality of spot fx... Currency markets are the most liquid and active markets of any sector. However, there is also a great deal of misinformation, slick advertising, and even outright deception regarding this $2 Trillion Dollar a Day marketplace. For starters, a large percentage of that $2 Trillion is traded through what is referred to as the interbank market. The interbank market is the top-level foreign exchange market where banks exchange different currencies. This trading between banks is not accessible to retail traders and is estimated to account for the vast majority of the Trillion Dollar liquidity factor that attracts so many retail traders in the first place. Here are a few of the reasons to trade futures: -Level playing field for all participants -Deep liquidity on major currency contracts -Safety and security of central clearing If your Forex brokerage firm uses a dealing desk, your buy and sell orders never actually reach the true Forex market. In other words, you do not have access to the inter-bank market. Instead you are buying and selling at prices set, and potentially manipulated by the dealing desk. This is known as conflict of interest. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange guarantees each transaction. Futures contracts are legally binding! This means that if you go long a currency futures contract and your speculation was correct, you will walk away from the trade with your profit even if the person that took the other side of the trade fails to pay. This is what we call counterparty risk. Take a moment, have a break and take a look at all the horror stories on forex factory, for instance. Whether you are a large institution or an individual trader, everyone is on equal footing when it comes to pricing currency futures. EVERYBODY gets the same price regardless of who you are (individual or mega bank). Best price wins, it is as simple as that — something that is not always the case in the fragmented OTC FX market. The spreads are also very tight if you trade liquid future contracts. Spot fx brokers also control their price feeds. They can widen the spreads as they see fit and they can really screw you over if they want to. Believe me when I say that most fx brokers don't want you to win! Even the ones that claim to have liquidity providers... Those are nothing but price feeds. Quotes. Nothing more.... And Forex firms offering a "fixed" 3-5 point spread may not be charging traders commission outright, or even in a form that shows up on an account statement, but there are significant costs built into the synthetic market that they provide to you. No middle man, no market maker. Yes, Forex is an electronic market, but your order still ends up on a "dealing desk" where a human handles your order. Or an algorithm... Basically, a Market Maker. He could make you or break you. With E-mini Futures you have a level playing field. You trade on a centralised and CFTC regulated exchange. Whether you're Goldman Sachs or Joe from Idaho, you get equal treatment! If you're worried about Liquidity - 1.5-3m contracts trade hands everyday on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Contract. If you want in or out of a position, there is almost always someone waiting and willing to take the other side of your trade (24/5) just 1 tick away. This simply isn't true for all Forex Pairs. Low Cost of Doing Business - Commissions on a self directed SP500 E-mini Trade (ES) should be no more than $3.00 per side or $6.00 per round turn. While many Forex Brokers tout "Zero Commission", we all know there's no free lunch. Forex Brokers don't need to charge a commission because they make money off of the bid/ask spread "they create" and then take the other side of your trade. Run the numbers... for every $100 in profits or loss, you will spend a larger % in "cost of doing business" in the Forex Market than you will in the S&P E-mini Market. Don't take my word for it... go take some real trades and you'll quickly see the truth. Zero Interest - If you you trade the ES intraday, expect to put up $500 per contract as a "bond" for lack of a better term. That's it. No hidden cost. Forex however, has a "cost of carry" associated which means interest may be charged or paid on positions taken. Fiduciary Responsibility - Even regulated US Forex firms are not required to segregate customer funds. If a regulated firm goes under, you do not have the protection of the CFTC and the NFA as you do in the Futures Markets. Turn ON The Volume Please - In Forex, since there is no centralised exchange, it is impossible to get a true read on volume. Not so with the S&P 500 "ES" E-mini. Simply turn on the volume indicator and you have exact numbers for Volume Analysis. GS and CITI have huge research departments with hundreds of employees, but they know nothing about volume that you don't know via a free indicator on your direct access trading platform. Just one more example of the level playing field we constantly speak of. Centralised Clearing - All trades are cleared via the CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange. All trades, including time and sales, are public information and posted in real time. Edit: By the way, if you're worried about discrepancies, currency futures charts look almost exactly the same as their spot fx siblings! So you can easily apply your current strategy to this market, too! A great example would be "M6E" vs "EUUSD" SO GUYS, LET'S ACCEPT REALITY AND LET'S DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. DO YOU AGREE? Source: cfrn.net
Help with Random Walk Implementation for regression.
I was working with Forex data and was using SVR (Support Vector Regressor) for forecasting Forex data. But almost all papers that i read on Time series Analysis for Forex had a comparison with Random Walk Algorithm .My problem is that i sort of understood the literature for random walk but am unable to implement it in python to forecast Forex . if someone could help me with it that would be a great help. Thanks in advance.
The Alpha Engine is a trading strategy resulted from nearly three decades of study that began from an effort to enhance economic theory and then apply it to models. It is interesting to note that it is not only a profitable system but it promotes healthy markets as it provides liquidity to financial markets. As mentioned in an earlier article, this piece of research identifies three hallmarks of profitable trading that are incorporated into the Alpha Engine system. First, the trading strategy should be parsimonious; it should have a limited set of variables and as a result is more adaptive to changes in market regimes. The next important component of the trading system is self-similarity. The strategy behaves in a similar manner across multiple time frames and thus allows for shorter time frames to be a filter of validity for longer ones. The last hallmark of a profitable trading is modularity. The modelling approach for the system should be modular meaning that it can be built in a bottom up fashion. Smaller blocks can be used to build larger components and therefore create a more complex system. The instrument universe chosen for backtest of this Alpha Engine is 23 Forex pairs. The Foreign Exchange market is an over-the-counter market that is not constrained by specific exchange based rules which is beneficial to the evaluation of the statistical properties of the system. The symmetry and high liquidity also offer an ideal environment for the development of the strategy. The paper expounds in detail upon the framework and composition of the Alpha Engine, which is a counter-trending algorithm. The model had an unleveraged return of 21% for eight years for an annual Sharpe ration of 3.06. Furthermore, the max drawdown was around 0.7%. Results of the research show that using leverage of 10:1 yielded approximately 10% per year. When a time series was generated on a random walk, the Alpha Engine yielded profitable results as the model dissected Brownian motion into intrinsic time events. You can read the full research by Anton Golub, James B. Glattfelder, and Richard B. Olson to learn more about the framework and background of the Alpha Engine here. Remember, losses can exceed deposits.
The random walk is said to be unbeatable, in trading. Which means there is no way to find an edge or make money when the prices follow random walk. That is why I put "The unbeatable" in brackets because that is the alternative name for random walk. I didn't mean that the method is unbeatable.. Thanks for asking though. With your help we have ... This video introduces the concept of a, ‘random walk with drift’, and derives some of its properties. Check out … source FOREX RANDOM WALK Strony. Strona główna; Administracja; Hazard; Konkursy; Obligacje; Psychologia; Surowce; Waluty; LINKI; piątek, 19 czerwca 2020 # Przemysław Słomski, Doxa, Cezary Głuch, Trader21. Jak zarobić na blogowaniu? Pojedynek blogerów w samo złoto. Przemysław Słomski vel Doxa (marka szwajcarskich zegarków) prowadzący "Blog ekonomiczny" zmierzył się z Cezarym Głuchem ... The Random Walk theory does not give any indication of a trend. It just gives the possible levels of turning points (support and resistance). The winning percentage depends on how successfully you can assess the trend for that specific day. A trader who is successful in evaluating the correct trend can even enter a trade at the opening of the new day and target "D1 Sup 0" for short target or ... Building on concepts from a previous article on the risk-reward relation in trading and how it corresponds to winrate, I’d like to explain with some concrete maths behind it – the forex market random walk.. Often when people are talking strategy, they oversimplify the relationship of risk-reward (RR) at outset, and strategy winrate. Random Walk Index Metatrader 5 Forex Indicator. The Random Walk Index Metatrader 5 custom indicator is abbreviated as RWI, and is traditionally used to define when a stock’s price movement becomes random in nature or a statistically significant trend. This attributes of the Random Walk Index (RWI) can also be applied on the forex market, thereby making it an impressive tool to deploy when ... If forex is simply a random walk we expect the same type of pattern-less image as shown above. The graphs obtained for two month of tick data are very different from the random graphs. There is a strong tendency towards diagonal movements that correspond to upward or downward trends. Even as we zoom in to periods without a particular overall trend we observe that the graph is mostly made up of ... Hello all, I am in the process of converting a VSA indicator I found from AFL to MT4 and am looking for a little bit of help. I have successfully converted most of the code however I became confused when I got to the trend analysis portion that uses the Random Walk Index. The non-random walk was composed by Andrew Lo, who is a non-random proponent, with a conclusion that there are many techniques that can be used to beat the major averages, but the question remains for how long can these methodologies be successful. Lo said, “The more creativity you bring to the investment process, the more rewarding it will be. The only way to maintain ongoing success ... FOREX RANDOM WALK Strony. Strona główna; Administracja; Hazard; Konkursy; Obligacje; Psychologia; Surowce; Waluty; LINKI; wtorek, 10 listopada 2020 # Guru forexu. Mentor forexu. Jak rozpoznać wartościowego? Ile milionów wart jest guru? Zaskakująco wiele osób potrzebuje kogoś kto im wskaże kiedy usiąść do platformy transakcyjnej, kiedy od niej wstać, a kiedy dopłacić do rachunku ...
Round Table with Ed Tulauskas from Random Walk Trading. Ed presented "Creating Risk Free Trades." Ed showed how he layers different trades to reduce or eliminate risk with the goal of creating a ... FOREX - Duration: 1:19:22. Simple Ton 403 views. 1:19:22 . Tuning Your Baitcaster to Prevent Birds Nest - Duration: 9:19. Joshua Taylor Recommended for you. 9:19. What is a Random Walk? Infinite ... Are markets random walk? - Duration: 8:37. UKspreadbetting 9,873 views. 8:37. LIVE FOREX TRADING 13TH MAY 2020 (NY EDITION) Todd Capital Group 193 watching. Live now; Million Dollar Traders - Part ... Random Walk Theory & Why it's So Important for Efficient Market Theory. - Duration: 34:38. tastytrade 20,586 views. 34:38. 195 videos Play all Trading Psychology UKspreadbetting; How chance ... Want to know more about technical analysis? Or how to create and code your own Trading System? Dave McLachlan's series of videos covers unique market researc... Random Walk Theory & Why it's So Important for Efficient Market Theory. - Duration: 34:38. tastytrade 20,661 views. 34:38. The ATR Indicator Is The Single Best Indicator Forex Traders Can Have ... Random Walk Model Simulation in Excel - Duration: 4:58. Sarveshwar Inani 9,506 views. 4:58 ... 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula - Beat The Market Maker📈 - Duration: 37:53. TRADE ATS ... ForexMT4Indicators.com are a compilation of free download of forex strategies, forex systems, forex mt4 indicators, forex mt5 indicators, technical analysis and fundamental analysis in forex trading.